In November 2005 diplomats from around the world met in Montreal to begin negotiations on a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. While the Kyoto agreement runs through 2012, governments are already focused on the period after 2012 because effective limits on the emissions that cause global warming require a long-term approach. Most of these gases are emitted from the energy sector, where capital investments last for decades. Private firms are unlikely to invest adequately in advanced technologies to cut their emissions unless they believe that limits will become sufficiently strict as governments get serious about slowing global warming.

There is no clear plan for Kyoto's successor. The Kyoto agreement, itself, does not offer an effective framework. The U.S. has pulled out and has yet to offer an alternative strategy for slowing global warming. Canada and Japan have formally joined the Kyoto treaty, but neither nation has yet offered a workable plan for meeting its Kyoto commitments. Only the European Union is implementing a scheme that will yield compliance with its Kyoto obligations. But a system that attracts only Europe is unlikely to exert much leverage on global emissions, as the EU accounts for only 15% of the world's total emissions. Moreover, the limits on emissions enshrined in the Kyoto agreement exclude developing countries, which account for nearly half of the world's GHG emissions. (China alone is responsible for 12%.) Because they are more populous, these countries' per-capita emissions remain much lower than that of the industrialized world. Nonetheless, any viable strategy for taming global warming must include a vision the eventual engagement of developing countries.