The economic recession is causing a slowdown in fossil-fuel powered electricity generation in China, leading to the sharp drop in carbon dioxide emissions.

Richard Morse, a research associate at Stanford University, said the recession could lead to a fall-off in power sector emissions of between 1.9 and 2.6 billion tonnes between 2008 and 2010, compared to business as usual conditions.

Power sector growth fell 4 per cent in October, and 9.6 per cent in November, according to Chinese data. Official data on December has not been released yet.

Slowdown

Morse said the slowdown in China's electricity growth during the fourth quarter of 2008 is "unprecedented."

"If those trends continue into 2009 and 2010 it will have large impacts on emissions from a sector that has witnessed an average annual generation growth rate of about 11 per cent since 1998."

Morse projections are based on three bearish scenarios for power generation growth in China between 2008 and 2010 - 2 per cent negative growth, 5 per cent negative growth, and a worst case scenario of minus 10 per cent.

The researcher stressed these projections are indicative, not firm projections.

China has announced plans to increase output of fossil fuels over the next six years.

New announcements

The country, already the leading emitter of greenhouse gases, will double output of natural gas to 160 billion cubic meters by 2015.

It will also boost production of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, by 30 per cent from 2007 levels to more than 3.3 billion tonnes in 2015, according to the news service China Daily.

The announcement was made by Hu Cunzhi, chief planner of the Ministry of Land and Resources in Beijing on Wednesday.

The Chinese government also plans to increase output of oil by 7 per cent to 200 million tonnes annually.

China's carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use rose to 6.2 billion tonnes in 2006, according to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.