Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Stanford University


September 17, 2007 - News

PESD researcher BinBin Jiang, working with collaborators in three coastal provinces, releases a new paper that estimates demand for natural gas in China. The study shows that gas competes mainly in niche markets but can't unseat coal for power generation unless very tight regulations on local air pollution are applied. If local pollution is regulated, however, the study suggests that China would also make a substantial dent in its CO2 emissions.

China gas model shows regional air quality concerns one means to mitigate GHGs

A multi-year study of natural gas demand in China and India concludes with a forty-three paged document of startling conclusions from the cases of Guandong, Shanghai, and Beijing provinces. PESD researcher BinBin Jiang writes the results of market modeling of natural gas in these three coastal regions and comments on industrial, residential, and commercial demand for the commodity. Her report includes plans for future infrastructure, possible leverage for mitigation of carbon dioxide, the grip of coal on power in China, and estimations of energy usage.

Natural gas demand in China is not only an important concern for potential suppliers, but a global point of interest given the growing consumption of the developing country and associated emissions. The CO2 savings of natural gas as a less carbon intense fuel source for power could make a significant dent in future emissions. One surprising result Ms. Jiang writes on is the potential carbon savings of Chinese policy to reduce sulfur emissions--a concern for local and regional air quality--by switching fuel sources from coal to natural gas.

The report also focuses on China's demand and use for domestic coal and its consequences. The three regions studied have varied dependencies on fuel sources and the transport of fuel for power generation. With the help of three local Chinese academic teams and professional modelers, Ms. Jiang was able to get a full and in depth perspective of the real influences on Chinese decisions in fuel choice.

Topics: Coal | Energy | Natural gas | China | India